We can always count on George W. Bush and now John McCain to liven up the day by reordering that GOP staple of let us count the ways to scare the **** out of you. Bush's bizarre bleating in Israel was bad enough but for McCain to back up the appeasement angle "as taking him at his word" says plenty about the McCain foreign policy thrust -- more of the Bushian same as in bluster first with faith-based incompetence to follow. It's clever by half to attack Barack Obama to distract from the messes in Iraq and Afghanistan. Come to think about it: what else can McCain or Bush do but call up the ghost of Neville "Peace in our time" Chamberlin from 1938 and hope nobody notices that it was the Bush-McCain war in Iraq that strengthened Iran and handed the hard liners in Tehran a gift that keeps on giving.

Loading up
How do we know we're in general election mode? John McCain tells us all about his the accomplishments in his first term -- including most troops coming home from Iraq in 2013 (details to come later) -- while the Tennessee GOP goes after Michelle Obama on patriotic grounds. Lke the moronic congressman who offered the world the policy shift from French fries to freedom fries in 2003 (as proof of patriotic purity), they offered this hymm: "The Tennessee Republican Party has always been proud of America. To further honor the occasion of Mrs. Obama's visit, the Tennessee Republican Party has requested the playing of patriotic music by radio stations across the state."
The Obama folks fired back: "This is a shameful attempt to attack a woman who has repeatedly said she wouldn't be here without the opportunities and blessings of this nation...and if the Tennessee Republican Party has a problem with Senator Obama, maybe next time they'll have the courage to address him directly instead of attacking his family."
And who said the general election fight will be a principled joust? Me thinks not. The racial undertones that has emerged in the Clinton-Obama fight likely will be small time compared to what's to come. The stakes are too high and too historical to imagine otherwise.

Delegate update
The Obama campaign sent out this reminder about the Dem delgate chase as their version of the magic number to clinch ahs dropped to 121.5.
Yesterday, Obama secured the support of 4 superdelegates (Reps. Henry Wexler, Jim McDermott and Howard Berman and Larry Cohen (CWA DNC)), 1 pledged delegate in North Carolina (because of updated vote tallies in the state) and 7 pledged delegates that had previously supported John Edwards. That means that the number for Obama to secure a majority of pledged delegates has gone down from 25 to 17. And the number Obama needs to secure the nomination is 121.5.
The Math
Total Pledged Delegates: 3,253
Pledged Delegates needed for a majority of pledged delegates: 1,627
Total delegates needed for nomination: 2,025
Edwards Pledged Delegates who are now Obama Delegates:7
Obama Pledged Delegates:1,603
Obama Super Delegates: 293.5
Obama Total Delegates:1,903.5
Delegates Obama needs for a majority of pledged delegates: 17
Obama need to secure the Democratic nomination: 121.5
Here's the not-so-breaking-scoop: Even if the string plays out until June 3, the race will be 99 percent done by Tuesday's in Kentucky and Oregon.
(UPDATE) Obama added SuperD Rep. Pete Stark of California -- another SuperD in a state that Clinton won back on super Tuesday.

Going down fighting but hold the negative, please
She may be broke and hoping for a miracle, but Hillary clinton is keeping to her word and not going down without a fight -- and she's not leaving any bullets in her campaign gun. Clinton has released new ads in Oregon and Kentucky touting her desire to be a partner and her quest to take on the special interests and create a level playing field -- and there's no mention of Obama at all.
In one of the Kentucky ads, Hillary "vows to stand up for the middle class and provide solutions to our toughest challenges in the 30-second spot, entitled 'Partner.' "
Hillary Clinton: We're going to roll up our sleeves and provide the solutions that America desperately needs.
Woman 1: We're living paycheck to paycheck.
Man 1: It's hard to decide between a gallon of milk and a gallon of gas.
Hillary Clinton: It's time that the American worker had a partner in the White House.
Man 2: Hillary Clinton can turn this country around.
Woman 2: Hillary has what it takes.
Hillary Clinton: The wealthy and the well connected have had a president,
It's time the middle class had a president who will stand up for you.
Woman 3: She will put up a very strong fight for people like me.
Hillary Clinton: I'm Hillary Clinton and I approved this message.

In the other Kentucky ad entitled “Right Track,” "Hillary promises to close corporate tax loopholes and put America back on the right track."
Hillary Clinton: It is wrong that a Wall Street money manager making fifty million dollars a year pays a lower percentage of his income in taxes than a nurse or a teacher or a truck driver or an auto worker making fifty thousand dollars.
ANNCR: Hillary Clinton will end loopholes for special interests and cut taxes for working families to pay for college, healthcare and retirement. It's time for action.
Hillary Clinton: We will put America back on the right track.
I'm Hillary Clinton and I approved this message.

The Oregon ad entitled What’s Right "details Hillary’s commitment to end the No Child Left Behind Act and provide quality, affordable health care for every American. And it emphasizes Hillary’s opposition to the Bush Administration energy bill, which removed local control over the siting of liquefied natural gas terminals on Oregon’s coast."
ANNCR: In Washington, they talk about who's up and who's down.
In Oregon, we care about what's right and what's wrong.
She's the one who will end No Child Left Behind so we teach children to learn, not take tests.
She's the one who voted against the Bush energy bill that threatens liquefied natural gas plants along Oregon's coast.
She's the one insisting on health coverage for every American
She's been right when it matters.
She'll be there when it counts.
HRC: I'm Hillary Clinton and I approved this message.

Lay down the odds
For those seeking an exotic investment in an uncertain economy, the folks at Dublin, Ireland-based Intrade offer an exchange with political value -- buy low, sell high and bet on the next president. In the latest weekly rating, Obama has surged to winning the presidential election at 58.7 percent while John McCain is at 38 percent. Hillary Clinton is as 6.1 percent. Read more fun predictions here.

One immediate and local impact of John Edwards' endorsement yesterday of Barack Obama -- Iraq war veteran and Edwards delegate Joshua David Denton of Portsmouth did what he told me he would in late January when Edwards dropped out of the race: he waited to see who Edwards would endorse and decided accordingly. In this case the 26-year-old vet activist has thrown his support to Obama. "My fear with Hillary was just because she is who she is -- for better or worse -- she would sink, not just lose the presidency," but Democrats in Congress, Denton told the AP. Denton was one of the four delegates Edwards won for his 3rd-place finish in the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8 (which seems like a longer than 4-plus months ago).

When Bush speaks...run for safety
President Bush couldn't resist hurling the appeasement accusation at the Dems and Obama during a speech in isarael. It was typical Bushian (brainless) politics and policy and the Obama folks didn't wait long to respond to highlight the poison obvious: “It is sad that President Bush would use a speech to the Knesset on the 60th anniversary of Israel's independence to launch a false political attack. It is time to turn the page on eight years of policies that have strengthened Iran and failed to secure America or our ally Israel. Instead of tough talk and no action, we need to do what Kennedy, Nixon and Reagan did and use all elements of American power - including tough, principled, and direct diplomacy - to pressure countries like Iran and Syria. George Bush knows that I have never supported engagement with terrorists, and the President's extraordinary politicization of foreign policy and the politics of fear do nothing to secure the American people or our stalwart ally Israel.”

New magic number: 2026
For those of you playing at home, the new Dem nomination clinching threshold has changed -- no, not the Clinton's campaign alternative universe number of 2210 (if you include the wayward boys and girls in Michaigan and Florida who ahve been expelled from primary school for breaking the rules) but 2026 -- the increase is due to the stunning pick up on a Congressional seat in a special election in Mississippi Tuesday night (stunning because the GOPers threw not one but two kitchen sinks into battle there: and lost by eight points. In short, the Dems gained another SuperD by winning the seat.
As of late yesterday, NBC reports that Obama needs 139.5 to reach the magic number; Clinton needs 302.5.

SuperD shuffle
The United Steelworkers Union followed the lead of John Edwards and switched their endorsement from Edwards to Obama -- and politely called for Clinton to bow out. “We share Senator Obama’s call for significant changes to these bankrupt policies, just as we earlier shared Senator Edwards’ And all of us, including we hope Senator Clinton for whom we have the utmost respect, must now do everything we can to ensure that Barack Obama is the next President of the United States. Now is the time for contention and division to cease, and for us to unite behind the changes for which Senator Obama and our members are calling," the union said in a statement.
And the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports that "Rep. Jim McDermott on Thursday became the fourth U.S. House member from Washington to endorse Barack Obama for president. The Seattle Congressman told the P-I's Joel Connelly that Obama is his pick because "I am confident as president he will end the war in Iraq and bring our sons and daughters home."
McDermott has represented Seattle for 19 years and is one of the more liberal voices in the Democrats' 235-member House caucus. He is the last House member from this state to declare his support for a presidential candidate.
McDermott joins at least four other Washington "superdelegates" who have endorsed Obama in the race for the Democratic nomination: Gov. Chris Gregoire; Reps. Rick Larsen, Adam Smith and Brian Baird; and Pat Notter, a member of the Democratic National Committee.
Sen. Hillary Clinton has the support of five of the state's superdelegates, including Sens. Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell, Reps. Norm Dicks and Jay Inslee, and King County Executive Ron Sims.
Obama won Washington's caucuses earlier this year.
(UPDATE) Obama added 2 more: California Congressmen Henry Waxman and Howard Berman, both major committee chairmen. (Campaign says Obama is now 130.5 total delegates away from the nomination.)
(ANOTHER UPDATE) President Larry Cohen of the Communications Workers of America, a super delegate for DC and a member of the Democratic National Committee, announced his support for Obama.

Victory plan for HRC
Alas for citizens of Hillaryland, her whopping victory in W.V. Tuesday became old news fast. Edwards sucked up the excitement oxygen and Obama grinded on with a net 3.5 SuperD haul for the day. But in my daily link, Gail Collins in the NY Times offers hope of the hard working variety that includes:
1) A big, big win in Kentucky next Tuesday. Ideally, Obama should be limited to no more than 100 votes.
2) Oregon, scheduled for the same day, inexplicably breaks off and sinks into the Pacific Ocean.
3) Puerto Rico, clocking in on June 1, not only gives Clinton a huge majority, but also manages to become a state in advance of the vote.
4) Finally, on June 3 as the South Dakota polls open, Thomas Jefferson’s head on Mount Rushmore comes to life and starts shouting, “You go, girl.”
An ambitious scenario, true. But nothing less than we’ve come to expect from the most hard-working political family in American history.

It's happy times in Hillaryland as she proved she could thump Obama in West Virginia. Or as Maureen Dowd put it today in the NY Times, it was a "Rasberry for Barry" as Clinton showed the fine points of political strip-mining. Dowd wrote: "Mining that antipathy, the New York senator has been working hard to get the hard-working white voters of hardscrabble Appalachia so she can show that a black man can’t yet be elected president."
In her victory speech, Clinton spoke the dwindling SuperD block. "The bottom line is this," she said. "The White House is won in the swing states, and I am winning the swing states." But Obama had moved on to Missouri where he was in a geneal election mode and talking about creating a new Democratic majority.

Which may or not include that much-fussed over demographic of hard working, non-college educated older woman and men white voters which gravitate to Hillary. Never in the annals of primary history has so much mental energy been expended to figure out what's happened to this subset of white folks. Joan Walsh in Salon jumps on the case: "Now the question becomes whether and how he (Obama) can win over her white working-class supporters. It's been dispiriting to visit some lefty blogs, and as well as some Salon letters threads, and read the contempt and, well, elitism expressed by some (not most) Obama supporters." Then again, one could wonder the worth of reading too much into a state like West Virginia in which remarkable numbers of voters believed (at least in exit polls) that Obama was a Muslim and that he shared Rev. Jeremiah Wright's views. Sometimes the skepticism about the ability to move certain voting blocs is warranted.

Clinton gained as many as 10 delegates last night. The math hasn't changed. Thankfully, there are only five contests to go.

SuperD Shuffle
No surprise that the Obama campaign rolled out a couple of SuperD announcements early today to add 1.5 SuperD's to his total, including Indiana Congressman Pete Visclosky Democrats Abroad Chair Christine Schon Marques (who has a 1/2 SuperD vote). I'd be surprised if there wasn't at least five to six more today.
(UPDATE) Since early this morning Clinton has added one (Vicky Harwell of the Tennessee Federation of Democratic Women) and Obama has added one (Oklahoma state Sen. Mike Morgan). The Obama claim they are now some 134.5 delegates away from the nomination.

In case you're wondering how the Clinton folks are going to spin tonight's results in West Virginia, here's a helpful preview of talking points for reporters from the campaign:
With a record turnout expected in today’s primary, West Virginia Democrats will make clear who they believe is the strongest candidate to take on Sen. McCain in the Fall.
The Mountain State is used to picking winners. Every nominee has carried the state’s primary since 1976, and no Democrat has won the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916.
Democrats carried West Virginia in 1992 and 1996, but lost the state—and the White House--in 2000 and 2004. Hillary has predicted victory against Sen. McCain in West Virginia based on the strength of her economic message.
Given the attempts by our opponent and some in the media to declare this race over, any significant increase in voter turnout, coupled with a decisive Clinton victory, would send a strong message that Democrats remain excited and energized by Hillary’s candidacy.
In the face of grim poll numbers, the Obama campaign has attempted to dismiss today’s outcome despite the fact that Sen. Obama has outspent us on advertising, has more staff in the state, and more than double the number of offices.
He has also benefited from the support of the most high-profile endorsers in West Virginia—Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Congressman Nick Rahall. By every measure, the Obama campaign has waged an aggressive campaign in the Mountain State.
Despite being the so-called “presumptive nominee” and benefiting from these advantages, Sen. Obama has been unable to close a significant gap in the polls.
Sen. Clinton has already won Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan. With a win in West Virginia, Sen. Clinton will have once again proven her greater ability to win in the key swing states.
In other words, mostly ignore almost everything that's happned until now: how goes West Virginia, so goes the country.
(UPDATE) The Obama spin was such: ah, West Virginia doesn't really matter -- after all, when it really counted in a state that really counts, we carried Virginia by 29 points. Here's the rest of the camapign perspective Including some meaty myth-busting) on what they consdier a less than eventful night:
There is no question that Senator Clinton is going to win by huge margins in the upcoming primaries in West Virginia today and Kentucky next week. She has poured resources into both states and she, former President Clinton, and Chelsea Clinton have all campaigned extraordinarily hard there.

According to the Washington Post/ABC poll released today, despite Sen. Clinton’s insistence that she is stronger among white, working-class voters the data shows that Sen. Obama performs nearly as well as she does in the general election. Among white, non-college voters in this poll:
Obama vs. McCain is 40-52
Clinton vs. McCain is 44- 52

Bradley on the air
Could it have been a coincidence that Jeb Bradley, the former 1st Congressional District incumbent, released his first set of ads on TV and radio on the day his Republican rival John Stephen was making a well-publicized official announcment tour? Maybe, maybe not but Bradley hasn't missed the Election 2008 road signs -- it's all about change. Bradley has jumped on the change express or at least his campaign theme so far talks up the Right Kind of Change as he goes after current incumbent and Democratic bulls eye Carol Shea-Porter who ousted him in 2006. “I will fight to cut taxes, to help working families and small business and will always support our veterans and the troops that are keeping America safe,” Jeb says in the ad. “With your help, we can make sure the change we get in Washington, is the change we want for New Hampshire.” See them for yourself here.

SuperD (strategic) shuffle
Gee, how many SuperDs do you think the Barack Obama folks will roll out today and tomorrow to partially deflect the decisive victory everyone expects from Hillary Clinton in West Virginia tonight? I wouldn't be surprised if say 10 to 12 declare their preference -- which should just about cover any delegate gains made by Clinton in West Virginia (which she has delcared "the turning point in the campaign!")
So far today, the Obama campaign has announced two, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin and Indiana Rep. Joe Donnelly -- and the Washington Post says that Washington, D.C. Dem party chair Anitat Bonds has joined the Obama camp. (UPDATE: Make that four confirmed as Obama also snagedd yet another former DNC chair, this time Roy Romer.)

Travel advice for Obama
By far the oddest press release I've seen this year came yesterday from the Republican National Committee. I say odd not because it makes wild claims but rather it's the sort of gibberish along the lines of have a nice day -- or like a customer rating on a travel web site. You decide: “Wherever Barack Obama’s campaign chooses to send their candidate, they’re going to have to explain to the local residents how an agenda of higher taxes, restricted gun rights, and state meetings with sponsors of terrorism makes sense. Voters throughout the country understand that unsubstantiated rhetoric coupled with a thin, far-left record, aren’t exactly captivating credentials for a potential President of the United States.”--Blair Latoff, RNC Spokeswoman .

Maine Rep. and U.S. Senate candidate Tom Allen announced his SuperD fidelity for Barack Obama today. In a campaign press release, Allen said: “I am running for the U.S. Senate because I believe Maine should lead the change this country needs. I share important priorities with Barack Obama: universal health care, reining in gas and food prices, greater independence from foreign oil, bringing our troops safely home from Iraq, creating jobs and strengthening the middle class.”
Allen said Obama is the embodiment of change for Maine and America.
“In February I watched a new generation of Mainers become involved in our nominating process because they were energized and hopeful about the future. I watched Independents and Democrats – and even a lot of Republicans -- in Maine enthusiastically support Barack Obama because they believe he can and will put America back on track,” he said.
Obama won Maine’s Democratic caucuses in February. His candidacy helped drive record turnout of some 45,000 participants.
(SuperD UPDATE) Obama has since added U.S. Senator Daniel Akaka from Hawaii and also from his original home state, DNC Hawaii Superdelegate Dolly Strazar, and Idaho Dem Party Chairman Keith Roark. The campaign said Obama is 150 delegates away from clinching the Dem noimination.
Coming to a NH town near you
There's a good chance that NH Republican 1st Congressional District candidate John Stephen will stop in or drive by your neighborhood today as he's on a seven-town bus tour to officially launch his campaign today. He began this morning in Glen at 7 a.m. and will wrap up in Manchester at 7 p.m. He will make stops in Somersworth at 1 p.m. at the Gateway Restaurant and 3 p.m. in Portsmouth's Market Square.

(Strange) conventional wisdom
Edward Luttwak is known as a loose cannon in foreign policy and historical circles which means he pisses off a lot people across the ideological spectrum. His NY Times OpEd today is a case in point and has to be read to be believed: the premise is that because Obama was born of an African Muslim father he won't be able to get the real respect he needs as President in dealing with Islamic countries. In fact, Luttwak says Obama would be an apostate and subject to a death sentence fatwa and would be under more risk traveling because he's likely a target of Muslim extremists (as if this wasn't an issue already for American Presidents). And Obama wouldn't be able to come through on his promise of changing America's "face" to the world. That's a whole of ifs.
As the son of the Muslim father, Senator Obama was born a Muslim under Muslim law as it is universally understood. It makes no difference that, as Senator Obama has written, his father said he renounced his religion. Likewise, under Muslim law based on the Koran his mother’s Christian background is irrelevant.
Of course, as most Americans understand it, Senator Obama is not a Muslim. He chose to become a Christian, and indeed has written convincingly to explain how he arrived at his choice and how important his Christian faith is to him.
His conversion, however, was a crime in Muslim eyes; it is “irtidad” or “ridda,” usually translated from the Arabic as “apostasy,” but with connotations of rebellion and treason. Indeed, it is the worst of all crimes that a Muslim can commit, worse than murder (which the victim’s family may choose to forgive).
With few exceptions, the jurists of all Sunni and Shiite schools prescribe execution for all adults who leave the faith not under duress; the recommended punishment is beheading at the hands of a cleric, although in recent years there have been both stonings and hangings. (Some may point to cases in which lesser punishments were ordered — as with some Egyptian intellectuals who have been punished for writings that were construed as apostasy — but those were really instances of supposed heresy, not explicitly declared apostasy as in Senator Obama’s case.)

Luttwak's OpEd is provacative and empty: he cites no foreign official or radical cleric in the Islamic world or elsewhere who actually believes such a premise is likely (I guess Osama bin Laden wasn't available for comment ).The choice of the word conversion is interesting: conversion from what? And such a dry literal reading of the Koran is no more instructive that a similar take from the Bible which is itself a mass of contradictions and outdated "laws."

Luttwak might in fact turn out to be right or partially right. But a counter-argument could be made: Obama's complex geneology might turn the premise upside down and lead to a lessening of tensions precisely because he doesn't fit any mold at this level.

SuperD shuffle: SundayQuiet day Sunday: only one declared, California SuperD Crystal Strait, a Young Democrats of America board member, for Obama

Obama has picked up a net 5 SuperD haul so far this weekend and according to the AP, he now leads in the SuperD category by a 275 to 271.5 count. The Obama campaign Saturday announced the support of Kristi Cumming of Utah and Dave Regan of Ohio, Rep. Harry Mitchell of Arizona and DNC members Carole Burke Kevin Rodriquez of the Virgin Islands. Rodriquez was the latest defection from Hillary Clinton to Obama. For her part, Clinton picked up add-on delegate Arthur Powell of Massachusetts. Obama campaign says he's now 156 delegates away from clinching.

It's hard to overstate how unlikely this was a little over four months ago before the first showdown in Iowa -- or that Time magazine would be brazen enough to call him the winner before the final 6 contests are finished. Clinton seems posed for a fat victory in West Virginia on Tuesday but it won't matter. Out of the 28 delegates in play, Obama will likely win between 10 and 12 just for showing up. The pro-Obama blogosphere is abuzz with speculation that he might be able to clinch the total delegate math with Oregon on May 20 -- which would be a tidy bow in that voters would provide the final push over the finish line and not a SuperD.

In my daily link, Frank Rich of the NY Times has the best take yet on what has happened and why -- namely, he's fighting the battles of 2008 and not those artificial historical ones (1968, 1988, 1998, 2004) erected by the pundits and the political class.

The national polling firm Rasmussen Reports, which has been tracking the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination daily since November 2006, announced on Friday that it will stop polling people about the presidential campaign of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton -- because the firm believes her opponent, Sen. Barack Obama, will win the Dem nomination.

In my daily link, John Dickerson of Slate gives Hillary the benefit of the "working white voter" doubt and says convincingly that she wasn't playing a race card. I agree -- it's more like stupid is as stupid does.

SuperD shuffle
The SuperD tallies yesterday, according to TPM, was 9 for Obama and 1 for Clinton. MSNBC offers another total (7 Obama-3 Clinton) while the NY Times and a few other news organizations now have Obama either tied or leading in SuperD endorsements.
I asked a spokesman for NH Gov. John Lynch, who has stayed mute so far, if he was ready to make an endorsement leap. No. Mute remains the option.

Organize this
Nashua is one of the 110 locations around the nation today that will host a kick-off event for the Obama campaign's national voter registration drive -- the first of many to come in the (less than) six months to the general election. It's a story that will likely go totally under the radar screen but it could prove crucial, especially in battleground states where the campaign's organizational dexterity and muscle might prove decisive because it's unlikely the McCain campaign or the Republicans will be able to mount such drives.

Former NH Gov. and U.S. Senate candidate Jeanne Shaheen stopped by a Portsmouth gas station on a campaign swing to make the case for -- more consumption? Now we know that prices have gone bonkers and it's impacting a wide swath of the economy and emptying people's pocketbooks (or debit card) at an ever-faster rate. But her four core proposals she offers raise more questions than offer solutions. Yes, we should think of a way to stop speculation on the commodity markets (this would require almost heroic legislation) but her other points to force oil companies to increase refineries, release 30 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (to hopefully lower prices), and pressure OPEC to increase production -- well, just puzzling.

Ah, this looks very much like a proposal drawn up by the Republicans (and an old one at that) but I could be mistaken. Might have been really interesting if she had emphasized say, conservation, lots of it, and a call for alternative energy development today and perhaps a windfall oil profits tax investment fund for alternative energy development -- anything to acknowledge that the days of cheap gasoline are ding dong dead.

More Hillary who?
Obama, who can get closer to winning the nomination even by losing in West Virginia next week (just by having a pulse he will likely win 10 to 12 of the 28 delegates up for grabs), gave an economic-focused speech in Oregon earlier today and he mentioned (by my count) John McCain's name 10 times. Hillary Clinton was mentioned not at all.

White folks don't what?
Obama may not be mentioning her name but Clinton campaigns on and remains defiant, understandably so; but smart -- maybe not so much. If Hillary Clinton is looking for a white backlash miracle a la 1968 or 1972, she's picking a hell of a time to do it -- it's a scorched earth tactic while the war is winding down. The words have to be read in the complete USA Today interview to be believed -- her last argument to SuperDs is that "Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me." In other words, when push comes to shove, panicky white folks will vote for her (or John McCain) and not for him. This is the revenge of identity, niche-focused politics. Better yet, she was quoting an AP story to make this case.

Of course, there' s no evidence, none whatsover that any of this will translate into a general election cauldron where the dynamics are totally different (though Obama has had the bruised advantage of having a general election kitchen sink or two thrown at him). But if Clinton says so, then it must be true and she can be trusted because she has so uncannily read the Democratic electorate so far, right? It could be very well be that Obama will have trouble with all sorts of voting blocs come the fall -- but there may also be a simple reason why this pie splitting can be defined so cheaply and, depending on one's perspective, so ugly. Obama and Clinton have fought an historical battle and appeal to greater or smaller Demographic groups in the context of a PRIMARY.

Busy day for the SuperD Shuffle
According to the Newark Star-Ledger, New Jersey Congressman who endorsed Clinton early in the process has switched camps. Rep. Donald Payne (D-10th Dist.), a New Jersey superdelegate who had been supporting Hillary Clinton for president, has switched his allegiance to Barack Obama," the story read. "After careful consideration, I have reached the conclusion that Barack Obama can best bring about the change that our country so desperately wants and needs."
"It was "one of the most difficult decisions I have made," Payne said. "I've really been mulling it over for quite a while." Read more here.
Also for Obama: The campaign announced California DNC Member and superdelegate Ed Espinoza -- according to Obama central, he is the 268th superdelegate to endorse Obama, who is 163 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination.
The AP added three more SuperD names for Obama including Rep. Peter DeFazio of Oregon and another California DNC member Vernon Watkins.
(UPDATE, around 3:40 p.m.) And three more: Laurie Weahkee of New Mexico, Hawaii Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, and Wilber Lee Jeffcoat, the Democratic Party Vice Chair in South Carolina.

Clinton added Rep. Chris Carney, whose congressional district voted overwhelmingly for the former first lady in the Pennsylvania primary on April 22.

There's plenty of opinion, speculation and theorizing regarding the near future plans of one Hillary Clinton. Few if any of them imagine her winning the nomination now after the tipping point events of Tuesday night. NH 1st District Rep. Carol Shea-Porter publicly joined the pro-Obama chorus of those suggesting a graceful exit from the primary race for the good of the Dems. “I hope she is considering it,” Shea-Porter told The Hill Wednesday. “I think it’s time for us to stand together and start attacking the position that the Republican nominee has taken.” She wasn't the only pondering the impossible odds and scenarios. Read more here.

SuperD shuffleBarack Obama added Rep. Brad Miller from North Carolina today while Clinton added Rep. Heath Shuler of North Carolina and Indiana Rep. Brad Ellsworth yesterday. The Obama campaign says that Millers's addition brings the total number of Obama superdelegates to 263 -- the Illinois Senator is now 168 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination.

Dear Barack: about Florida and Michigan
Clinton is making another attempt to get the 'don't exist' Michigan and Florida delegations sat and she wouldn't mind it as much to her advantage as possible. But I'm not sure what kind of response she will get, especially with the pleasant but unimistakable linking of his campaign's lack of enthusiasm for revote proposals to Republican shenanigans in Florida in 2000. After all, Obama didn't create this mess and Clinton might have more moral and political credibility if she hadn't agreed with the DNC decision last year to strip the states of their delegates and render their primaries null and void when they jumped the primary calendar gun.
Dear Senator Obama,
This has been an historic and exciting campaign. Millions of new voters have been brought into the process and their enthusiasm for the Democratic Party and the principles for which you and I have fought and continue to fight is unprecedented.
One of the foremost principles of our party is that citizens be allowed to vote and that those votes be counted. That principle is not currently being applied to the nearly 2.5 million people who voted in primaries in Florida and Michigan. Whoever emerges as the Democratic nominee will be hamstrung in the general election if a fair and quick resolution is not reached that ensures that the voices of these voters are heard. Our commitment now to this goal could be the difference between winning and losing in November.
I have consistently said that the votes cast in Florida and Michigan in January should be counted. We cannot ignore the fact that the people in those states took the time to be a part of this process and to make their preferences known. When efforts were untaken by leaders in those states to hold revotes to ensure that they had a voice in selecting our nominee, I supported those efforts. In Michigan, I supported a legislative effort to hold a revote that the Democratic National Committee said was in complete compliance with the party's rules. You did not support those efforts and your supporters in Michigan publically opposed them. In Florida a number of revote options were proposed. I am not aware of any that you supported. In 2000, the Republicans won an election by successfully opposing a fair counting of votes in Florida. As Democrats, we must reject any proposals that would do the same.
Your commitment to the voters of these states must be clearly stated and your support for a fair and quick resolution must be clearly demonstrated.
I am asking you to join me in working with representatives from Florida and Michigan and the Democratic National Committee to arrive at a solution that honors the votes of the millions of people who went to the polls in Florida and Michigan. It is not enough to simply seat their representatives at the convention in Denver. The people of these great states, like the people who have voted and are to vote in other states, must have a voice in selecting our party's nominee.
Sincerely,
Hillary Rodham Clinton

There's plenty of opinion, speculation and theorizing regarding the near future plans of one Hillary Clinton. Few if any of them imagine her winning the nomination now after the tipping point events of Tuesday night. NH 1st District Rep. Carol Shea-Porter publicly joined the pro-Obama chorus of those suggesting a graceful exit from the primary race for the good of the Dems. “I hope she is considering it,” Shea-Porter told The Hill Wednesday. “I think it’s time for us to stand together and start attacking the position that the Republican nominee has taken.” She wasn't the only pondering the impossible odds and scenarios. Read more here.

There's plenty of opinion, speculation and theorizing regarding the near future plans of one Hillary Clinton. Few if any of them imagine her winning the nomination now after the tipping point events of Tuesday night. NH 1st District Rep. Carol Shea-Porter publicly joined the pro-Obama chorus of those suggesting a graceful exit from the primary race for the good of the Dems. “I hope she is considering it,” Shea-Porter told The Hill Wednesday. “I think it’s time for us to stand together and start attacking the position that the Republican nominee has taken.” She wasn't the only pondering the impossible odds and scenarios. Read more here.

There's plenty of opinion, speculation and theorizing regarding the near future plans of one Hillary Clinton. Few if any of them imagine her winning the nomination now after the tipping point events of Tuesday night. NH 1st District Rep. Carol Shea-Porter publicly joined the pro-Obama chorus of those suggesting a graceful exit from the primary race for the good of the Dems. “I hope she is considering it,” Shea-Porter told The Hill Wednesday. “I think it’s time for us to stand together and start attacking the position that the Republican nominee has taken.” She wasn't the only pondering the impossible odds and scenarios. Read more here.

There's plenty of opinion, speculation and theorizing regarding the near future plans of one Hillary Clinton. Few if any of them imagine her winning the nomination now after the tipping point events of Tuesday night. NH 1st District Rep. Carol Shea-Porter publicly joined the pro-Obama chorus of those suggesting a graceful exit from the primary race for the good of the Dems. “I hope she is considering it,” Shea-Porter told The Hill Wednesday. “I think it’s time for us to stand together and start attacking the position that the Republican nominee has taken.” She wasn't the only pondering the impossible odds and scenarios. Read more here.

In the wake of last night's results, the AP reports that '72 Dem nominee George McGovern is urging Hillary Clinton to withdraw and will throw his support to Barack Obama. If true, this would be a personal blow because Clinton worked an orgnanizer for the McGovern campaign in Texas in 1972. According to the AP story: After watching the returns from the North Carolina and Indiana primaries Tuesday night, McGovern said Wednesday it’s virtually impossible for Clinton to win the nomination. The 1972 Democratic presidential nominee said he had a call in to former President Clinton to tell him of the decision, adding that he remains close friends with the Clintons.
“I will hold them in affection and admiration all of my days,” he said of the Clintons.
McGovern’s announcement comes a day before Clinton was scheduled to travel to South Dakota to campaign. The state holds its primary June 3 with 15 pledged delegates at stake.
McGovern said he had no regrets about endorsing Hillary Clinton months ago, even before the Iowa caucuses.
“She has run a valiant campaign. And she will remain an influential voice in the American future,” he said.
But Obama has won the nomination “by any practical test” and is very close to a majority of the pledged delegates, said McGovern, who is 85. Obama moved within 200 delegates of clinching the nomination with his split decision on Tuesday of a win in North Carolina and a narrow loss in Indiana.
It’s time to unite the Democratic Party, he said.
“Hillary, of course, will make the decision as to if and when she ends her campaign. But I hope that she reaches that decision soon so that we can concentrate on a unified party capable of winning the White House next November,” he said.
McGovern is not a superdelegate, one of the prominent Democrats who has a vote at the national convention.

Sununu opens up
Locked in a reelction rematch, Sen. John Sununu slammed his Democratic rival Jeanne Shaheen in an interview with new Granite State web site called Now! Hampshire. Sununu said that Shaheen had no credibility to cirtiicize him and tested out a campaing theme of flip-flopping Jeanne. Read and hear more.

For her part, Shaheen will be in Portsmouth tomorrow to announce a press conference at Tony's LukOil in Portsmouth to, the campaign said, "address the record-high gas prices New Hampshire families are paying and discuss proposals to lower gas costs."

The SuperD shuffle
(2:40) This from the Obama campaign, the first of many such annoucnements coming over the next two weeks, I suspect.
The day after Barack Obama’s commanding victory in North Carolina and tight finish in Indiana, three superdelegates today endorsed Barack Obama.
The three previously uncommitted superdelegates endorsing Obama are North Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Meek, North Carolina DNC member Jeanette Council, and California DNC member Inola Henry.
These endorsements brings the total number of superdelegates to endorse Obama to 261. Senator Obama is 170 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination.

Whole lot of shakin' going on
In a morning conference call today, the Clinton folks offered their assessment (big win in Indiana because the Obama campaign said they were going to win -- three months ago; progress in North Carolina) and there are "no discussions" to withdraw from the race (and they announced a full campaign schedule to West Virginia, South Dakota and Oregon over the next two days.) Not much detailed discussion about Hillary lending herself some $6.4 million.

(12:20 p.m.) The Obama folks "can see the finish line." They held a conference call a short while ago and said that Obama had gained as many 13 delegates from last night's showdowns. Campaign manager David Plouffe said the campaign was 33 pledged delegates away from getting a PD majority and 172 from clinching the nomination outright. They also noted that Rush LImbaugh's call to cause chaos in Indiana may have worked (and possibly cost Obama the state) and insisted that despite plenty of exit poll chit chat among the pundit class, the economic, social and racial divisions in the primaries will not be factors in the general election. They'd better hope so.

Hoosiers/Tar Heels Recap
Finally, there's light at the end of the Democratic primary tunnel. Last night's dramatic results in North Carolina and Indiana were defining for both Barack Obama (who won handily in North Carolina) and Hillary Clinton (who won a hard-fought nail-biter in Indiana that wasn't called by the networks until long past midnight). Obama may have stopped the bleeding of the past six weeks (re: Wright, bitter-clingy gate, Clinton battering) and his campaign claims, he has set himself for for a final push to secure the nomination by Oregon on May 20 (their metric: he will have won the majority of pledged delegates). More importantly, it has opened up the gate for the final stampede of remaining superdelegates.

Obama's victory lap in North Carolina had the feel and passion of an acceptance speech, with big themes & a pivot towards McCain and the general election. While Obama looked like a man revived, Clinton speaking in Indiana talked the bluster of "full speed ahead" but she faces road closings almost at every turn. The math has gone from extremely difficult to almost impossible and her campaign has been reduced again to reshaping reality about Michigan and Florida and changing the party finish line of 2,025 delegates to 2,209 (read more here by Walter Shapiro of Salon). It's beyond absurd but those are the few cards she has left. Her speech no doubt was a come down given the campaign had bet so much for a game changing result and came out on the short end of a tie (Obama increased his delgate lead by perhaps 5 to 10, and his popular vote total by 200,000. Clinton's campaign song may become "Oh won't you stay, just a little bit longer."

Your humble blogger proved himself inept on the predictions front: I did get Indiana right (Clinton by four points or less), I missed North Carolina (I said Obama by five to ten: he won going away by 14), I shortchanged him on the polular vote totals of the day (he increased by some 200,000 and I said 50 to 100k), and I inflated his delegate haul considerably (25 to 50 was my bet; it may end up to be 10 to 12). I'm not planning to give up my day job for full-time prophet work.