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February 17, 2007
For Democrats: Being On 3rd Base Isn't Home, Yet

If the New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary has shown anything through the years, it is unpredictable. "Contrarian" is a word I used to hear a lot in describing our primary. As I defend it in Concord and with media and political activists nationally, I often explain that is a good thing. Do we really want to return to the smoke-filled rooms of national conventions where last-minute deals are made with whomever will be the nominee?

In 1968, Minnesota U.S. Senator Gene McCarthy did so well in the New Hampshire Primary that President Lyndon Johnson decided retirement was preferable to a hard campaign. South Dakota U.S. Senator George McGovern showed better-than-expected strength in 1972 against our neighbor, Maine U. S. Senator Ed Muskie. In 1976 Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter beat the Washington-based politicians here.

In 1980 California Governor Ronald "I paid for this microphone..." Reagan beat the established Republican choice then-former CIA Director George Bush -- the first one. In 1984 Colorado U.S. Senator Gary Hart amazed the political world by winning over former Vice President Walter Mondale.

Then-Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton made his unexpected "comeback kid" move here in 1992. Then there's conservative commentator Pat Buchanan's 1996 win, and Arizona U.S. Senator John McCain's 2000 victory. He skipped the Iowa Caucuses entirely and focused on New Hampshire. Smart move. Surprises abound in New Hampshire.

The media and their polls have anointed three "top-tier" candidates on the Democratic side. Since baseball spring training is getting underway, let's talk baseball: New York U. S. Senator Hillary Clinton is on third base, according to the numbers that tally her "first." Illinois U. S. Senator Barack Obama is supposedly on second base, and 2004 Democratic Presidential nominee John Edwards is on first, needing to move up to make it. Right now. According to polls.

Being on 3rd base isn't home, however. Errors are made. Some messages strike out. Fouls happen. Candidates trip up. Staffs mismanage. New players come to play. Things change. Lots of innings to go.

Who will be the Democrats' possible surprises in 2008? Among others, don't discount Connecticut U.S. Senator Chris Dodd or New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. Either could focus lots of time and effort here and make a breakthrough even if one just comes in second (doing "better than expected" is another media-driven goal for candidates). And they each have considerable political and governmental experience.

While Richardson has the problem of coming from New Mexico, which some Americans probably don't know is really one of our 50 states, he has a very solid background -- UN Ambassador, Member of Congress for 15 years in the 1980s and 90s, Bill Clinton's Energy Secretary, Governor.

Then there is former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, who will get attention coming into New Hampshire because of the Iowa Caucus. He speaks well, has a powerful message, and did some good things in his state.

Any of those three are well-positioned to jump out and get a boost from Launchpad New Hampshire. If they sputter and fizzle, expect Delaware U.S. Senator Joe Biden to talk long enough to remain standing at the podium. He's got perseverance, and in New Hampshire, that's important.

Okay, and to be fair (in the interest of disclosure, I'm supporting Clinton) -- there are other possibilities: former Alaska U.S. Senator Mike Gravel, Ohio U.S. Representative Dennis Kucinich, and maybe former Vice President Al Gore and General Wesley Clark. And . . . ?

One perils his or her predictability percentage by firmly judging too early who will do well in the New Hampshire Presidential Primary.

February 15, 2007
Hillary & Obama - Campaigning New Hampshire Style?

Last week in New Hampshire it was Barack Obama, Dennis Kucinich, and Hillary Clinton, this week it's Hillary, Kucinich, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, and Connecticut U.S. Senator Chris Dodd.

I see a trend here. Between now and next January we can expect almost weekly visits from Presidential candidates of both political parties, and eventually daily ones. The masses of national and even international media traveling with them want to get special stories however they can, unique perspective whenever they can, and they'll be trying their best to catch an unguarded moment wherever they can.

I have been struck in both the cases of Barack and HIllary, so far, that we haven't really seen them without their professional controllers around them. Yet. I think we've seen more of the "natural" Barack than of Hillary, but both seem to be a bit surrounded by their consultants and quite holding to their script. New Hampshire has a way of changing that, though. We'll see them all in those unguarded moments mighty soon.

But for now, they're well-managed. You see it in their words, and in their venues. Nevertheless, we are seeing some different ways of doing things.

Hillary's visit (for disclosure purposes, I'm supporting her) was especially interesting last weekend. She did something most Presidential candidates don't do: she went to the North Country, really beginning her New Hampshire campaign there. She spent over an hour talking with almost 1,000 Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and just the curious, in Berlin in a sort-of "town-hall" meeting. Barack did sort-of the same at the University of New Hampshire, though his audience at the Field House was more like 2,500.

I say "sort-of" because their "town-hall" meetings weren't much more than quickie introductory speeches, then questions and answers. Nothing wrong with that, but that's not what real New Hampshire-style town-hall meetings are all about. I expect they will try new formats sometime soon, though. Both are developing intelligent campaigns.

I thought the Berlin even for Hillary and the Durham event for Barack were smart ideas. For Obama, he was motivating young people at a college who will serve as a core of his growing support. Clinton was reaching out for a segment of New Hampshire Democrats up north who often are viewed as living in Canada. Their votes count every bit as much as those in Durham and Portsmouth and Nashua and Manchester.

Hillary has a tough job to do this weekend as she visits Dover: while Democrats in Congress are speaking out against Iraq and the mistake that war is to many voters, how can she continue to say her vote in favor of the resolution authorizing the President's invasion of Iraq in 2002 was anything but a mistake?

An even tougher job for Hillary is explaining her seeming cheerleading of the President's action after Baghdad fell, and after Saddam was captured a few months later. Hard to explain, and she's got to do so -- we've seen her on video tape. She can't be a surrogate of George W. Bush of the Democratic Party in the NH First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary while Barack and others take on the war.

In politics, 24 hours is a long time -- close to the election. Right now, Hillary and Barack [and all the others] have time to adjust their messages. Each is exciting, and either can get traction. To do so, they're best advised to put the polls and consultant-written statements aside, and just be themselves: because eventually that's what we're going to see. That's campaigning New Hampshire style.

February 08, 2007
The NH Presidential Primary: When Will It Be?

The Portsmouth Herald has invited me to write a regular column and Blog about the New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary. It is one of my favorite topics.

During the next year or so, there will certainly be a lot to write about. For almost a century this little part of America has given the first thumbs up, or down, on potential Presidents. The candidates come here for their first job interview.

Some find it really tough going, and their campaigns sputter to a stop after they check out of their Hotel New Hampshire. Others surprise everyone, have great Wednesday morning headlines to hold up, become the talk around water coolers and coffee pots from New York City to California, and eventually move their luggage into the White House.

Continue reading "The NH Presidential Primary: When Will It Be?" »

About this Blog

Since 1975 when I authored the "NH will be first" law (with a few updates since), we have guaranteed our presidential primary is first-in-the-nation. The next occupant of the White House will have his, or her, first job interview here. So, let's take a look at why they run, how they run, who helps them run, what's in it for them, what they're going to do for us, and what they're saying on the roads and sidewalks and living rooms throughout the state. In NH, the candidates meet us one-by-one, face-to-face, eye-to-eye. Here, they have to talk "with" us, not "to" or "at" us like they will be doing from podiums and TV studios in bigger states later on. So, let's get the discussion going. Let's go beyond the fancy ads, puffy slogans and fluffy consultant-written speeches. This is an arena where WE count as much as anyone else, because the NH primary is the ultimate leveling ground. It's about people. It's about American democracy. It's Presidential Politics 101!


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