If the New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary has shown anything through the years, it is unpredictable. "Contrarian" is a word I used to hear a lot in describing our primary. As I defend it in Concord and with media and political activists nationally, I often explain that is a good thing. Do we really want to return to the smoke-filled rooms of national conventions where last-minute deals are made with whomever will be the nominee?
In 1968, Minnesota U.S. Senator Gene McCarthy did so well in the New Hampshire Primary that President Lyndon Johnson decided retirement was preferable to a hard campaign. South Dakota U.S. Senator George McGovern showed better-than-expected strength in 1972 against our neighbor, Maine U. S. Senator Ed Muskie. In 1976 Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter beat the Washington-based politicians here.
In 1980 California Governor Ronald "I paid for this microphone..." Reagan beat the established Republican choice then-former CIA Director George Bush -- the first one. In 1984 Colorado U.S. Senator Gary Hart amazed the political world by winning over former Vice President Walter Mondale.
Then-Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton made his unexpected "comeback kid" move here in 1992. Then there's conservative commentator Pat Buchanan's 1996 win, and Arizona U.S. Senator John McCain's 2000 victory. He skipped the Iowa Caucuses entirely and focused on New Hampshire. Smart move. Surprises abound in New Hampshire.
The media and their polls have anointed three "top-tier" candidates on the Democratic side. Since baseball spring training is getting underway, let's talk baseball: New York U. S. Senator Hillary Clinton is on third base, according to the numbers that tally her "first." Illinois U. S. Senator Barack Obama is supposedly on second base, and 2004 Democratic Presidential nominee John Edwards is on first, needing to move up to make it. Right now. According to polls.
Being on 3rd base isn't home, however. Errors are made. Some messages strike out. Fouls happen. Candidates trip up. Staffs mismanage. New players come to play. Things change. Lots of innings to go.
Who will be the Democrats' possible surprises in 2008? Among others, don't discount Connecticut U.S. Senator Chris Dodd or New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. Either could focus lots of time and effort here and make a breakthrough even if one just comes in second (doing "better than expected" is another media-driven goal for candidates). And they each have considerable political and governmental experience.
While Richardson has the problem of coming from New Mexico, which some Americans probably don't know is really one of our 50 states, he has a very solid background -- UN Ambassador, Member of Congress for 15 years in the 1980s and 90s, Bill Clinton's Energy Secretary, Governor.
Then there is former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, who will get attention coming into New Hampshire because of the Iowa Caucus. He speaks well, has a powerful message, and did some good things in his state.
Any of those three are well-positioned to jump out and get a boost from Launchpad New Hampshire. If they sputter and fizzle, expect Delaware U.S. Senator Joe Biden to talk long enough to remain standing at the podium. He's got perseverance, and in New Hampshire, that's important.
Okay, and to be fair (in the interest of disclosure, I'm supporting Clinton) -- there are other possibilities: former Alaska U.S. Senator Mike Gravel, Ohio U.S. Representative Dennis Kucinich, and maybe former Vice President Al Gore and General Wesley Clark. And . . . ?
One perils his or her predictability percentage by firmly judging too early who will do well in the New Hampshire Presidential Primary.
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