The latest poll numbers were out and when I ran across John Dickerson’s story in Slate today (“Time to Panic”), I was sure that the punditocracy was gearing up to imagine how the Barack Obama folks (and the other Democratic hopefuls) were being blown away by the awesome polling tornado of Hillary Clinton —and wanted to get the scoop on the sinking ship.
I was expecting the worst — mass mutiny, tears or perhaps even a few sobs at Obama offices across the state.
When I talked to a confidential source in the Obama campaign earlier today, this N.H. campaign advisor wasn’t drinking the horse race poison.
When said source considered the latest poll numbers that showed their guy stuck in the expectations swamp, he joked it was time to call “President Howard Dean, President Ed Muskie or President Phil Gramm,” former huge front runners who didn’t make it to the finish line, for advice (in the case of Republican Gramm in 1996, he dropped out even before Iowa.)
“I’m frankly stunned that it’s over,” he said half-mockingly.
My Obama contact enjoyed toying with the conventional wisdom being shoveled about by those writing the same nonsense for a select audience (D.C. based) while often having little clue what’s happening on the ground here in first-in-the-galaxy primary land, or in Iowa, or in Nevada, or in South Carolina or just about anywhere.
“We’re plowing the fields and they’re saying the harvest is over,” Obama man told me. This campaign veteran, not known for being excessively full of bullsh--, shared a story from the Gary Hart campaign in 1984 when Hart was polling in the single digits and was given a full media funeral with rites — a few weeks before the actual primary.
“Hart told me ‘the politicians and pundits in Washington drink from the same bath water and call it a sacrament,’” he said. Hart of course beat the establishment favorite Walter Mondale before eventually succumbing due to a lack of money and lack of a national campaign organization.
Obama man told me that Obama has the candidate gravity, a strong message, the money and the on-the-ground organization that remains mostly invisible (and under the media radar) until it counts — in the final few weeks before voters make up their minds.
“We have 11 field offices and have personally touched or contacted more than 100,000 voters in the state.” What matters today is that as many as 80 percent or more of voters haven’t made up their minds — and from the Obama’s camp perspective, the fact that so many independents haven’t decided bodes better for them than Clinton.
“The Clintons have been a household word here for almost two decades: if I was at nine percent (committed voters) with that much name recognition, I’d be concerned.” As a thoughtful parting gift he added that Clinton is "seeling nostalgia as change" which may not entice independents.
What matters Obama man told me is that a little more than nine months ago Obama was a relatively unknown politician. Since that time, a national campaign organization has been created, he’s raised more money than any primary Democrat ever, and he (and the campaign) is making the connection with voters. He’s even got the flavor of an insurgent.
Of course, all campaign surrogates say that. The best of them are wise about one matter, he said. “We can’t guarantee anything. We have the horses on the ground to influence the outcome but not guarantee it. They (the voters) will hear more when they are ready to hear it.”
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