DES MOINES, Iowa -- (11 p.m.) I've just returned from the Barack Obama victory speech in downtown Des Moines. The crowd was fired up. Obama had recovered most of his voice to deliver a powerful speech that had little to do with policy and everything to do with shooting to create the political majority he has talked about on the campaign trail.
The sense among the few media folks I talked to was one of being stunned by the depth and breadth of Obama's victory on the Democratic side. Three stunning exit poll results from Iowa for me was that Obama beat Hillary Clinton among women, drew major support from indepedendents and swamped everybody among voters under 30. It will be interesting to see if that trend repeats itself in New Hampshire.
A telling moment of my Iowa visit came earlier tonight at one of the precinct sites when I walked outside and started talking to Jane Elgin. She was older woman who said the Obama folks had dropped her off at the wrong precinct. (probably a rare gaffe for the organization that night). I did my civic duty and drove her to the right precinct and she shared her excitement of going to her first caucus and supporting Obama -- despite a strong respect for John Edwards. It was a rare, unvarnished snapshot into what happened at her precinct and across Iowa -- not because of who she supported but the simple fact she came out on a cold winter's night to make her voice be heard.
It's back to New Hampshire and five days of saturation campaigning beginning with Romney in the middle of the night for an airport raqlly in Manchester -- and Obama for an airport rally of his own in Portsmouth at 8:45 a.m.. I wish I had their airline connections. My flight to Minneapolis takes off at 5 a.m. Call me the zombie pundit.
(7 p.m.) The waiting is over.
I visited two Des Moines precincts as Democratic caucus goers began to file in -- in potentially big numbers if you use major traffic overflow as a measure. At one of them, Jackson Elementary School in a Des Moines neighborhood, Joe Biden and his clan were shaking hands and asking for votes. His son Hunter told me Biden had drawn large crowds at the four events across the state (on a plane) before setting down in Des Moines -- and they were already looking forward to New Hampshire and Saturday's night debate. (Hunter Biden also emphatically denied the rumor of Biden cutting a deal with Obama for his support if his supporters did not reach viability in their precinct. See below for more)
In a truly unscientific poll of my own, I talked to eight random voters not wearing campaign buttons or sweatshirts and each of them were first-time caucus goers -- and each of them were Obama supporters. Brian Bacus and Traci Kaufman came together and Bacus told me he "was energized by the whole thing (Obama's candidacy)" and "He's the first politician I can honestly trust." The couple had gone to three rallies during the campaign season (Bacus had also run into Obama at the downtown food court today) and Kaufman said that Obama "made me proud to be American." Jane Elgin, who was conflicted because she also liked John Edwards a lot, said she was coming out to caucus for the first time because Obama represented change and a chance to turn around the country.
(earlier)
This is what happens when the campaigning comes to a grinding halt and rumors start making the rounds. I was minding my business and leaving Java Joes, a downtown coffee shop, when a woman looked at my press credentials and asked me if Id heard that Bill Richardson was urging his supporters to make Barack Obama their second choice if he wasn't viable in their precinct (viable: that 15 percent threshold necessary to make the final cut). No, I said, I hadn't heard anything about such nefarious activity and found it hard to believe such a deal would be made because it's a lose-lose for everyone. -- and how could it 'enforced' anyway? (I bumped into David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, at an event in Des Moines last night, and such backroom deals didn't come up in the conversation. He looked happy to have survived Iowa with his wits intact.)
I didn't think any more of ithe rumor until I checked my computer again and saw it must have really made the rounds -- and expanded to include Joe Biden -- because Walter Shapiro of Salon wrote a story about it. What do they say about idle minds?
(earlier)
Father George Kelly and son Mathew Kelly are undecided voters who have to make a decision soon -- Mathew in Iowa tonight and George in Concord Tuesday. Mathew, a college professor in Pella, is a first-time caucus goer and will attend the local Democrat caucus with wife Anne. Both are supporters of Bill Richardson though Mathew said he also was impressed with Dennis Kucinich. "I like the honest kind of talk out of them." He told me what matters most to him is the ability to speak the unflinching truth and likes Richardson's no-nonsense approach on the environment, the war in Iraq and education. He said that Richardson would make a major push on energy and global climate change in part because he believes it's a "panic" situation requiring a man to the moon effort. As for Iraq, he told me "the biggest slap in the face to anyone who lost someone on 9/11 is that Bin Laden is still alive" because of the diversion to Iraq. Mathew told me "I'd be very surprised if they (Richardson or Kucinich) won and if he must make a second choice he's leaning (like so many I've talked to) to John Edwards while Anne is leaning towards Hillary Clinton.
As for father George -- when I talked to him last week, he was undecided between Richardson and Edwards. Alas, George won't get a second choice in New Hampshire on Tuesday.
First-time caucus goer Tim McLean is an undecided independent who could go for Republican Ron Paul or Democrat
ohn Edwards. Needless to say that's an interesting voter mind set. McLean, a financial accountant from nearby Pleasant Hill, told me earlier today he probably wouldn't make up his mind until later this afternoon. Most of all, he told me, he's looking for somebody, anybody who will "break the ideological boundaries" and deal with his top two, very connected issues -- a rational and national health care system and stopping out of control government spending and the soaring national debt that goes with it. McLean believes if we don't get control of spending, pressing issues like health care reform and climate change will be victims of a financial drought.
(earlier)
It's all about win, place and show for the candidates and sorting through the media buzz of the past two days, one development is near the top -- Will John McCain make the Republican top three in Iowa after having essentially written it off? If he does, this will rival the winner's headlines going into New Hampshire.
Second speculation story line that sounds a lot like New Hampshire: Will the independents show up and break Democratic in heavy numbers. If they do, it will be an exciting night.
Weather forecast: cold, sunny, windy, in the 20s with wind chills in the single digits tonight. Downright balmy.
(earlier)
What the brigades of talking head pundits may be talking about while waiting today, courtesy of Talking Points Memo and the final Zogby/Rueters/C-CPAN tracking poll here in caucus kingdom.
Needless to say, these would be interesting outcomes if they prove accurate. Here are the raw numbers including up and down movement from Jan. 1:
:
Democrats:
Obama 31% (+3)
Edwards 27% (+1)
Clinton 24% (-4)
Richardson 7% (+0)
Biden 5% (+1)
Republicans:
Huckabee 31% (+3)
Romney 25% (+1)
Thompson 11% (-1)
McCain 10% (-2)
Paul 10% (+1)
Giuliani 6% (-1)
In my daily link, John Dickerson of Slate speculates that Hillary Clinton might have found her herself, her stride on the campaign trail.
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