Primary Pundit by Michael McCord

Yes, it's time for self-reflection among the pundit corps who made collective fools of themselves by (1) putting blind faith in polling and (2) then repeating each other in the pundit echo chamber of frenzied, poll-driven logic. My main mistake wasn't in predictions (which I didn't and don't make: I don't need to go out of my way to make a fool out of myself. I do it naturally) but in underestimating (and not reporting) what I knew to be true. Let me count a few ways. (1) The deep strength of the Clinton ground organization which was pushed to the hilt by the Obama folks; (2) forgetting what I knew to be true, namely the depth of popularity and support for Hillary Clinton (and the Clinton name) among Democrats; (3) The support of New Hampshire's Democratic political establishment which happens to be strongly populated; and (4) Hillary Clinton will go to the brink to get every vote (see the 30-minute canvassing session in Manchester on Sunday that drew large media attention and did much to bolster her reputation as someone who would not outworked.) There will be plenty of talk about the trail of tears to victory (which did have the effect of changing the camapign narrative) but the reality is that Hillary Clinton earned every vote -- and did a great job of baiting the media to make her a canddiate under seige.

That said, it was a remarkable, tight race that essentially came down to maybe a dozen wards in Manchester and Nashua. Both candidates left New Hampshire strong (not so much for John Edwards whom the Obama no doubt wish would get the hell out of the way) and I believe New Hampshire will be prelude to the major struggle down the road -- one which will be good for voters, the candidates, and the nominating process. Most important of all, it will make for a great story.