NEGATIVE NO WORK -- For the second week in a row, Mitt Romney, who spent the most money and ran the most negative ads, lost. A coincidence? Romney was pleased to win another silver. M cCain was pleased to win because between the two it was personal. Romney was too glib about torture and Guantanamo Bay and the consequences of such cheap talk.
APPREHENSION? -- With around 17 percent in, Clinton is leading 40 to 35 percent. It's a little quiet at the Obama rally where security is incredibly tight.
MCCAIN MANIA -- MSNBC called it for McCain at around 8:10 p.m. This is a remarkable comeback from a guy who was given up as politically dead six to seven months ago. This could be the double digit vicotry of the night. Clinton and Obama are too close too call. McCain -- I covered him making trips to office board rooms and VFW halls with fewer that 50 folks.
CHIT-CHAT -- It's 8:05 and the talking heads on MSNBC have been furiously chatting up Barack Obama and questioning the existence of Hillary Clinton -- which could be good news for Obama given they have reems of exit poll info they are waiting to show off as soon as possible. Early early returns (11 percent) show Clinton over Obama by a 38 to 36 percent margin with Edwards lagging behind considerably. The Edwards folks sent out an odd primary day release focused on a smoky "firewall" in hopes it would prove prophetic that Hillary would go down in flames. It was a funny focus to say the least -- and I guess about the only strategy they may have left despite a herculean effort by Edwards.
John McCain has a bigger lead over Mitt Romney. He's also superstitious -- he's holding his primary night rally at the same hotel in Nashua he had in 2000 when he won...even the same ballroom.
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HAMPTON FALLS FAMILY AFFAIR -- It was an exciting primary day for Kate Spoto of Hampton Falls. Her 18-year-old twin daughters Angela and Sarah were voting for the first time and they were doing with mom. Democratic contender Barack Obama swept away the Spoto family (the father was away on a business and voted by absentee ballot). Angela told me she voted Obama because of his inclusive approach -- "I like how he trusts the people." Kate said she had some concerns about Obama's epxerience but believed the "force of his vision" was more important. Of equal importance, she told me, was voting for somebody (as opposed to against somebody) and being able to share that enthusiasm with her daughters. She supported John Kerry in 2004 "just because I didn't like Bush."
Hampton Falls town moderator John Shaw said he called in for more ballots in the predominantly Republican town. "It's been a pretty steady flow," Shaw told me but he wasn't sure yet whether the town would have a record turnout -- he was still waiting for later afternoon surges to come.
Another young voter, 20-year-old Casey Roe was holding a John Edwards sign.The American University student had met Edwards a couple of times and she supported him because "he's the only talking about coproate greed" and his environmental policies which are most important to her. She said that Clinton and Obama were still supportive of nuclear power and liquified coal and that Edwards strongly opposed both. She said Obama was "inspirational" but have enough "substance" to get her support.
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DEDICATED IN GREENLAND -- I stopped by the very busy voting place in Greenland and ran across signholders Michael Fitzgerald (big McCain sign) and Shay Lavery (smaller Romney sign with an accompanying red hand "Mitt" adornment) who had been standing around almost five hours since 7:30 a.m. Fitzgerald was with Veterans for McCain and supported McCain in 2000. "He'll be the real comeback kid this year," Fitzgerald said of McCain's campaign. "It's all about character. He got killed on immigration but stood his ground. He's at his best when he's fighting." For Lavery, immigration was was her top issue and she believed Romney's successful management experience left him best equipped to make the changes necessary to accomplish immigration reform.
ODD SIGHT -- Never seen this one before: campaign signs sagging in melting snow.
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Shameless promotion department: For those early risers I will do my pundit best to explain the results tomorrow at 7 a.m. on Comcast Channel 8.
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The primary campaign is over and voting has begun -- with the best primary day weather I've ever seen. People have asked me for months who do I think will win on the Democratic and Republican primaries. I have always declined to answer though I did hit this repeat button often -- despite press obituaries to the contrary, John McCain was not a dead man walking candidate (lessons learned from 2000) and nothing was inevtiable (see Clinton, Hillary).
I subscribe to the old Hollywood mantra of "nobody knows anything" until the votes have been tallied. While I have no shortage of opinions, I don't make predictions of victory or defeat. I will share some trends I will be watching for today and tonight:
1) Obama mania -- It's real but how big is it? The energy of the Obama crowds is far different than those of those Clinton audiences (which have also been augmented with outsiders trucked in from out of state). Not better or worse, just very different with different messages to different audiences. If Iowa was prelude, that excitement could translate into buckets of votes not only from young voters but across the board. If the expected record primary turnout does happen, it will likely benefit Obama most of all. The most energizing candidate almost always brings out the vote.
2) If independents break heavy for Obama, McCain will be for a vote-for-vote slugfest with Mitt Romney. As with Clinton, I don't underestimate his organizational heft which is up against McCain's passionates brigades.
3) The Republicans will be in turmoil no matter what happens. Maybe Rudy Giuliani is smart to play coy with Iowa and NH -- and Newt Gingrich may be having visions of glory.
4) It's sad to see Hillary and Bill Clinton go dark with threats of Al Queda bombings and buyer's remorse if Obama wins. It's undignified for some Democrats to rip a page out of the Karl Rove toxic playbook (remember the 'Wolve in the woods' ad slamming John Kerry as national security sissy in 2004) and play the fear card. It looks desperate -- perhaps it is desperate. Is that what she means by being a 'doer, not a talker'?
5) Nothing will be settled by today's results.
6) Can Ron Paul translate national Internet enthusiasm and fund-raising prowess into votes?
7) Will there be a continuation of the grass roots energy generated by the stunning 2006 Congressional victories of Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter? If so, it can only hope Obama whom they both support.
8) This has been the most fascinating primary I have have the opportunity and honot to cover. I have been impressed by the desire of voters to articulate their concerns and hopes. I've been lucky to see almost all of candidates, talk to them, and see them with voters.
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