That said, it was a remarkable, tight race that essentially came down to maybe a dozen wards in Manchester and Nashua. Both candidates left New Hampshire strong (not so much for John Edwards whom the Obama no doubt wish would get the hell out of the way) and I believe New Hampshire will be prelude to the major struggle down the road -- one which will be good for voters, the candidates, and the nominating process. Most important of all, it will make for a great story.

More on that later.

Apologies -- Last night I had software and Internet issues and was unable to update the blog as the night went along. I was at the Obama victory rally that wasn't and it was interesting to see some 500 media people relaize in unison they were likely in the wrong place. The hard-earned victory party was up the road in Manchester.

APPREHENSION? -- With around 17 percent in, Clinton is leading 40 to 35 percent. It's a little quiet at the Obama rally where security is incredibly tight.

MCCAIN MANIA -- MSNBC called it for McCain at around 8:10 p.m. This is a remarkable comeback from a guy who was given up as politically dead six to seven months ago. This could be the double digit vicotry of the night. Clinton and Obama are too close too call. McCain -- I covered him making trips to office board rooms and VFW halls with fewer that 50 folks.

CHIT-CHAT -- It's 8:05 and the talking heads on MSNBC have been furiously chatting up Barack Obama and questioning the existence of Hillary Clinton -- which could be good news for Obama given they have reems of exit poll info they are waiting to show off as soon as possible. Early early returns (11 percent) show Clinton over Obama by a 38 to 36 percent margin with Edwards lagging behind considerably. The Edwards folks sent out an odd primary day release focused on a smoky "firewall" in hopes it would prove prophetic that Hillary would go down in flames. It was a funny focus to say the least -- and I guess about the only strategy they may have left despite a herculean effort by Edwards.
John McCain has a bigger lead over Mitt Romney. He's also superstitious -- he's holding his primary night rally at the same hotel in Nashua he had in 2000 when he won...even the same ballroom.

(earlier)
HAMPTON FALLS FAMILY AFFAIR -- It was an exciting primary day for Kate Spoto of Hampton Falls. Her 18-year-old twin daughters Angela and Sarah were voting for the first time and they were doing with mom. Democratic contender Barack Obama swept away the Spoto family (the father was away on a business and voted by absentee ballot). Angela told me she voted Obama because of his inclusive approach -- "I like how he trusts the people." Kate said she had some concerns about Obama's epxerience but believed the "force of his vision" was more important. Of equal importance, she told me, was voting for somebody (as opposed to against somebody) and being able to share that enthusiasm with her daughters. She supported John Kerry in 2004 "just because I didn't like Bush."
Hampton Falls town moderator John Shaw said he called in for more ballots in the predominantly Republican town. "It's been a pretty steady flow," Shaw told me but he wasn't sure yet whether the town would have a record turnout -- he was still waiting for later afternoon surges to come.
Another young voter, 20-year-old Casey Roe was holding a John Edwards sign.The American University student had met Edwards a couple of times and she supported him because "he's the only talking about coproate greed" and his environmental policies which are most important to her. She said that Clinton and Obama were still supportive of nuclear power and liquified coal and that Edwards strongly opposed both. She said Obama was "inspirational" but have enough "substance" to get her support.
(earlier)
DEDICATED IN GREENLAND -- I stopped by the very busy voting place in Greenland and ran across signholders Michael Fitzgerald (big McCain sign) and Shay Lavery (smaller Romney sign with an accompanying red hand "Mitt" adornment) who had been standing around almost five hours since 7:30 a.m. Fitzgerald was with Veterans for McCain and supported McCain in 2000. "He'll be the real comeback kid this year," Fitzgerald said of McCain's campaign. "It's all about character. He got killed on immigration but stood his ground. He's at his best when he's fighting." For Lavery, immigration was was her top issue and she believed Romney's successful management experience left him best equipped to make the changes necessary to accomplish immigration reform.
ODD SIGHT -- Never seen this one before: campaign signs sagging in melting snow.
(earlier)
Shameless promotion department: For those early risers I will do my pundit best to explain the results tomorrow at 7 a.m. on Comcast Channel 8.
(earlier)
The primary campaign is over and voting has begun -- with the best primary day weather I've ever seen. People have asked me for months who do I think will win on the Democratic and Republican primaries. I have always declined to answer though I did hit this repeat button often -- despite press obituaries to the contrary, John McCain was not a dead man walking candidate (lessons learned from 2000) and nothing was inevtiable (see Clinton, Hillary).
I subscribe to the old Hollywood mantra of "nobody knows anything" until the votes have been tallied. While I have no shortage of opinions, I don't make predictions of victory or defeat. I will share some trends I will be watching for today and tonight:
1) Obama mania -- It's real but how big is it? The energy of the Obama crowds is far different than those of those Clinton audiences (which have also been augmented with outsiders trucked in from out of state). Not better or worse, just very different with different messages to different audiences. If Iowa was prelude, that excitement could translate into buckets of votes not only from young voters but across the board. If the expected record primary turnout does happen, it will likely benefit Obama most of all. The most energizing candidate almost always brings out the vote.
2) If independents break heavy for Obama, McCain will be for a vote-for-vote slugfest with Mitt Romney. As with Clinton, I don't underestimate his organizational heft which is up against McCain's passionates brigades.
3) The Republicans will be in turmoil no matter what happens. Maybe Rudy Giuliani is smart to play coy with Iowa and NH -- and Newt Gingrich may be having visions of glory.
4) It's sad to see Hillary and Bill Clinton go dark with threats of Al Queda bombings and buyer's remorse if Obama wins. It's undignified for some Democrats to rip a page out of the Karl Rove toxic playbook (remember the 'Wolve in the woods' ad slamming John Kerry as national security sissy in 2004) and play the fear card. It looks desperate -- perhaps it is desperate. Is that what she means by being a 'doer, not a talker'?
5) Nothing will be settled by today's results.
6) Can Ron Paul translate national Internet enthusiasm and fund-raising prowess into votes?
7) Will there be a continuation of the grass roots energy generated by the stunning 2006 Congressional victories of Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter? If so, it can only hope Obama whom they both support.
8) This has been the most fascinating primary I have have the opportunity and honot to cover. I have been impressed by the desire of voters to articulate their concerns and hopes. I've been lucky to see almost all of candidates, talk to them, and see them with voters.

I'm traveling north to Rochester to see the Iowa victors Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama in the same town around the same time.

(earlier with P.S.)
At the risk of piling on but here goes anyway -- It's rare to see a seasoned politician and campaigner dance mostly to the tune of another one but watching Hillary Clinton take up the banner of change -- as a reflexive gesture, like the sign of the cross against a vampire, against her rival Democratic rival Barack Obama -- can be instructive. When the Clinton campaign shifts into theme mode it is a sight to behold -- surrogates, staffers and the candidate begin speaking in a numbing unison to fight back perceived or real threats against her candidacy -- as I witnessed last night in Hampton at a campaign rally in which she pulled out all the stops. I've said for months the Clintonites had misinterpreted and underestimated Obama's rhetorical gifts of persuation and visionary narrative -- and in doing so they misread the mood of the voters. They are rightly outraged that Obama gets away with being vague of about policy details -- but that's her strength not his. Perhaps given the unprecendented mess the next president faces, he doesn't want to get bogged in policy specifics. Perhaps there's less than than meets the eye. They and perhaps many voters find his sermons on hope and change too much to stomach. But I've seen during this crazy primary season that voters are responding to the "we" far more than candidates speaking "I, I, I."

Watching her drink the change kool aid and spit it back out looks forced and anemic, another example of poll-driven insertions that dull an otherwise lively mind and unparallelled gift to dechipher what's wrong and offer solutions. She can wear an audience down with her detailed answers. When she says "I'm a doer and not a talker" she can make a good case of accomplishment. But she has slipped on so many suits in the campaign (experience, leadership, accomplishment, change) that you never know what's going to come up. In comparison, Obama has had the advantage of being annoyingly consistent with his few themes.
Going after Obama for his legislative votes is fair game but the hypocrisy is almost comical given the depth of lobbyist money and influence in her campaign -- and as I learned in Iowa, talk about Iraq war can be toxic because voters there told me they haven't fogotten the war or her war authorization vote in 2002. To accuse Obama of voting to fund the troops already in a war she supported at the beginning was rich enough to give me intellectual heartburn. Their latest dagger is a 'Obama as a potential George W. Bush in the making' (you know, no experience and without experience you can't have change is the latest formula) and it's an embarrassing howler. It's also a sign of desperation -- Bush was the most ill-experienced, least traveled, most coddled and uncurious president possibly ever. If Clinton can't tell the difference, what does that say about her judgment?

P.S. -- Perhaps it's a slight case of paranoia on my part but last night at the Clinton event in Hampton, a very tall man carrying a Clinton sign kept walking along the ropes of the media area, staring at reporters and then walking away before returning a short time later. When I made eye contact with him he smiled a not-reassuring smile and turned around. I know the popular wisdom among the Clinton supporters is that we are all secret Hillary bashers -- perhaps this guy was carrying a media voodoo doll?

It was packed, an estimated 2,500 or that included an overflow with folks cheering at a, ah, loudpseaker. They were there to hear and see the post-Iowa caucus winning Obama who seems to really hitting a new gear with a stump speech that evolves and morphs (by comparison, he was rather the policy-listing plodder with his early efforts when the campaign launched less than a year ago). He got this crowd juiced numerous times and possibly best of all when mentioning that George W. Bush or his 'cousin' Dick Cheney wouldn't be on the ballot in November -- and, I wrote in my notes, when he talked about respecting the Constitution("very loud cheer"). Obama said he was going after the undecided voter and he may have persuaded a few or many or many more (Tuesday will tell whether he made the sale.)
One of those undecideds was Lydia Blume, an enthusiastic Democrat from York, Maine who didn't hesitate when I asked why she was interested in Obama (Blume will take part in the Maine caucuses next month -- which alas won't get as much love, respect and adoration as Iowa; it's all in the batting order). "This is the key: he's pushing change from the ground up," said Blume who is part of an emerging organization called Seacoast Democrats (based in York) that is attempting to do exactly what Obama advocates. Blume, who brought her young daughter Sophia Eytel to Exeter High (new motto: It's a long walk up the driveway). She told me the young and growing group is self-created and inspired by the frustration and promise of the 2004 and 2006 elections. Obama probably didn't disappoint her especially when he talked "Americans are the agents of change."

I'm off to see Hillary Clinton in Hampton in a short while.

Poll Fever
They are coming fast and furious and you can find what you want in each of them. The Concord Monitor/Research 2000 poll released yesterday has a tight Dem race with Obama 34 percent, Clinton 33 percent, and Edwards 23 on the Dem side; for the GOP, John McCain led Mitt Romney by a 35 to percent margin with Mike Huckabee at 13 percent. The latest CNN/WMUR poll had Clinton and Obama tied at 33 percent with Edwards at 20 percent. John McCain also topped the Republican race with a 35 to 29 percent lead over Mitt Romney and Rudy giuliani at 14 percent. The Franklin Pierce/WBZ poll will be released tonight. It's likely to be very tight come Tuesday.

Clinton Reaches Out To Young New Hampshire Voters
Holds Roundtables With Young Undecided Voters In New Hampshire
Launches “Ask Hillary” Feature on Facebook In Conjunction With Tonight’s Debate

The Clinton Campaign continued its outreach to young voters Saturday, holding roundtables with undecided Granite Staters and launching an “Ask Hillary” feature on the campaign web site to allow voters to pose questions directly to Hillary.
“I want to hear from young voters about their concerns and encourage them to participate in this incredible process,” Clinton said. “I have been making change for 35 years, and with their help, I will go to work on Day One to make change in the White House.”
Hillary and Chelsea Clinton will hold a roundtable with four undecided voters ages 18 to 25 on the campaign bus traveling between Penacook and Durham today, fielding a range of questions on the most pressing issues facing young people in New Hampshire . Among the undecideds will be Ben Coleman of Bristol , who celebrates his 18th birthday today and plans to major in science and mathematics at the University of New Hampshire .
n Durham , Hillary will continue her outreach to young voters, holding an hour-long conversation with 30 young undecideds at the Bagelry.
Also Saturday, the campaign launched an “Ask Hillary” feature on its web site, reaching out directly to Hillary's Facebook supporters in conjunction with tonight’s ABC/Facebook debate in Manchester . Voters can submit questions to Hillary over the next two days, and she’ll post video answers to the top five questions on the site early next week. Questions can be submitted at hillaryclinton.com/ask.
Gore supporters drop bid
The Draft Gore New Hampshire folks have dropped their bid for an Al Gore write-in effort to raise the profile on alternative energy development in the presidential campaign. Farrill Seiler, the group's leader sent out the e-mail earlier today and said he contacted some 2,000 members to vote for the candidate who might best embrace the former vice president's policies. Though it was unlikely to be a repeat the Ralph Nadar in New Hampshire and Florida in the general election of 2000, with every vote up for grabs on Tuesday that will be one annoyance for the Democratic candidates.

(earlier)
Just got a report that the Obama event in Nashua will likely draw more than 2,000 this morning -- but then all the candidates are drawing huge crowds as the clock now works for some candidates and mostly against the rest of them.
I was surprised that Iowa proved to be such a chopping block for Dem candidates Joe Biden and Christopher Dodd who made such herculean efforts in Iowa. It's truly a cruel business. I saw Biden shaking hands (with family in tow) with voters just before a caucus began in Des Moines. His son Hunter talked to me enthusiastically about the crowds his father was drawing and was looking forward to tonight's debate in Manchester. Who knew that would be his last campaign stop before dropping out a few hours later. Dodd ran probably the least artifical television ads in Iowa at the end -- just him looking into the camera talking about his desire to lead the country and the experience he would bring. Dodd had made the total committmnet by moving his family to Iowa. And then by 9 p.m. central time it was over for him as well.
Can't help but admire the spinning and positive thinking taking place by those candidates not named Huckabee and Obama. Romney talks about the first inning of fifty inning game (a mangled sports analogy at best) and strangest of all, claiming a change platform himself (for Washington but not the presidency. Uh?) Silver medals at the primary level drive candidates to do odd things -- just ask Dem John Edwards who has claimed victory of sorts (over Hillary) and said it's a two-person race between him and Obama. That's audacity of hopeful thinking in action. And Hillary has come back to New Hampshire washing her hands of Iowa as not really historically significant (she's right of course) and a good effort by her campaign (right aas well). But we think she would have been singing a much different tune had she finished on top. I know my confidence would have been tested had I not been supported by seventy percent of Democratic caucus goers in Iowa (to show the weird nature of perception in these things, Obama, the convincing winner in Iowa, was not supported by around 62 percent of the same caucus goers)
The good news is that here in first-in-the-galaxy primary land, the media mob that has descended upon us won't have to spend time explaining an exotic caucus formula. It's one person, one vote and turnout here (which could smash all records) will be key -- the more the merrier is the Obama campaign song. We will see the full impact of a theorized Iowa slingshot effect -- or will it be a boomerang full of surprises for for the frontrunners.
More later on the debates I won't be attending but will be watching.

"We had a big turnout. Too big for the space we had. Here are my numbers:
Total Attendees: 304
We elected 29 delegates which broke down to:
Clinton 8
Obama 9
Edwards 12
Richardson was nearly viable on first count but could not attract any more. Dodd only had 3 at first count. 5 uncommitted.
The big surprise I wasn't planning for was registering 114 new democrats. Its allowed to switch parties to participate. We had many Repubs at our caucus. They must have thought we Democrats are more fun."

And then there was Tim McLean, an undecided first-time caucus goer from nearby Pleasant Hill who reported back that he made a decision to back John Edwards (he also like Republican Ron Paul). His wife Lonita, also a first-timer, opted for Hillary Clinton. The big news there also was turnout which broke records, a fact McLean attributed to the number of good choices Democrats felt they had with their candidates (two of which, Biden and Dodd, have since dropped out -- the high of Obama's triumph was matched by the low of seeing presidential campaign hopes dashed even before making it to New Hampshire.)

Leave it to a sourpuss editorialist at the New York Times today, of all days, to moan and cry yet again about how unfair it is that Iowa and New Hampshire have such a major impact on the nominating process. Boo hoo. This editorial was an act of establishment self-indulgence. There were the usual complaints about how superficial the process is, how issues aren't being addressed and other such claptrap. The best idea offered is regional primaries which plays into the big money players and wouldn't have allowed, for example, Huckabee to emerge or McCain to survive. What penetrating imagination -- and it ignores the Times' own reporting and what I witnessed myself of a serious committment to caucus, a knowledge of the issues (often as astute as any so-called expert) and how this looney tune arrangement managed to draw in tens of thousands of new and younger voters, both for Obama and Huckabee. There are good arguments to be made for how truly irrational our nominating process is and goodness knows I see the absurdity of it -- but to offer nothing as a substitute for a something that does engage voters who might otherwise be ignored is the weakest form of advocacy. There was far too much to celebrate on numerous levels today than to consider seriously this anemic editorial.

In my first post-caucus daily link, we find a reason why John McCain hearts Mike Huckabee as the Huck-man victory in Iowa was a political kick in the groin for Mitt Romney -- which surely made McCain smile.

The sense among the few media folks I talked to was one of being stunned by the depth and breadth of Obama's victory on the Democratic side. Three stunning exit poll results from Iowa for me was that Obama beat Hillary Clinton among women, drew major support from indepedendents and swamped everybody among voters under 30. It will be interesting to see if that trend repeats itself in New Hampshire.

A telling moment of my Iowa visit came earlier tonight at one of the precinct sites when I walked outside and started talking to Jane Elgin. She was older woman who said the Obama folks had dropped her off at the wrong precinct. (probably a rare gaffe for the organization that night). I did my civic duty and drove her to the right precinct and she shared her excitement of going to her first caucus and supporting Obama -- despite a strong respect for John Edwards. It was a rare, unvarnished snapshot into what happened at her precinct and across Iowa -- not because of who she supported but the simple fact she came out on a cold winter's night to make her voice be heard.

It's back to New Hampshire and five days of saturation campaigning beginning with Romney in the middle of the night for an airport raqlly in Manchester -- and Obama for an airport rally of his own in Portsmouth at 8:45 a.m.. I wish I had their airline connections. My flight to Minneapolis takes off at 5 a.m. Call me the zombie pundit.

(7 p.m.) The waiting is over.
I visited two Des Moines precincts as Democratic caucus goers began to file in -- in potentially big numbers if you use major traffic overflow as a measure. At one of them, Jackson Elementary School in a Des Moines neighborhood, Joe Biden and his clan were shaking hands and asking for votes. His son Hunter told me Biden had drawn large crowds at the four events across the state (on a plane) before setting down in Des Moines -- and they were already looking forward to New Hampshire and Saturday's night debate. (Hunter Biden also emphatically denied the rumor of Biden cutting a deal with Obama for his support if his supporters did not reach viability in their precinct. See below for more)

In a truly unscientific poll of my own, I talked to eight random voters not wearing campaign buttons or sweatshirts and each of them were first-time caucus goers -- and each of them were Obama supporters. Brian Bacus and Traci Kaufman came together and Bacus told me he "was energized by the whole thing (Obama's candidacy)" and "He's the first politician I can honestly trust." The couple had gone to three rallies during the campaign season (Bacus had also run into Obama at the downtown food court today) and Kaufman said that Obama "made me proud to be American." Jane Elgin, who was conflicted because she also liked John Edwards a lot, said she was coming out to caucus for the first time because Obama represented change and a chance to turn around the country.

(earlier)
This is what happens when the campaigning comes to a grinding halt and rumors start making the rounds. I was minding my business and leaving Java Joes, a downtown coffee shop, when a woman looked at my press credentials and asked me if Id heard that Bill Richardson was urging his supporters to make Barack Obama their second choice if he wasn't viable in their precinct (viable: that 15 percent threshold necessary to make the final cut). No, I said, I hadn't heard anything about such nefarious activity and found it hard to believe such a deal would be made because it's a lose-lose for everyone. -- and how could it 'enforced' anyway? (I bumped into David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, at an event in Des Moines last night, and such backroom deals didn't come up in the conversation. He looked happy to have survived Iowa with his wits intact.)

I didn't think any more of ithe rumor until I checked my computer again and saw it must have really made the rounds -- and expanded to include Joe Biden -- because Walter Shapiro of Salon wrote a story about it. What do they say about idle minds?

(earlier)
Father George Kelly and son Mathew Kelly are undecided voters who have to make a decision soon -- Mathew in Iowa tonight and George in Concord Tuesday. Mathew, a college professor in Pella, is a first-time caucus goer and will attend the local Democrat caucus with wife Anne. Both are supporters of Bill Richardson though Mathew said he also was impressed with Dennis Kucinich. "I like the honest kind of talk out of them." He told me what matters most to him is the ability to speak the unflinching truth and likes Richardson's no-nonsense approach on the environment, the war in Iraq and education. He said that Richardson would make a major push on energy and global climate change in part because he believes it's a "panic" situation requiring a man to the moon effort. As for Iraq, he told me "the biggest slap in the face to anyone who lost someone on 9/11 is that Bin Laden is still alive" because of the diversion to Iraq. Mathew told me "I'd be very surprised if they (Richardson or Kucinich) won and if he must make a second choice he's leaning (like so many I've talked to) to John Edwards while Anne is leaning towards Hillary Clinton.
As for father George -- when I talked to him last week, he was undecided between Richardson and Edwards. Alas, George won't get a second choice in New Hampshire on Tuesday.

First-time caucus goer Tim McLean is an undecided independent who could go for Republican Ron Paul or Democrat
ohn Edwards. Needless to say that's an interesting voter mind set. McLean, a financial accountant from nearby Pleasant Hill, told me earlier today he probably wouldn't make up his mind until later this afternoon. Most of all, he told me, he's looking for somebody, anybody who will "break the ideological boundaries" and deal with his top two, very connected issues -- a rational and national health care system and stopping out of control government spending and the soaring national debt that goes with it. McLean believes if we don't get control of spending, pressing issues like health care reform and climate change will be victims of a financial drought.

(earlier)
It's all about win, place and show for the candidates and sorting through the media buzz of the past two days, one development is near the top -- Will John McCain make the Republican top three in Iowa after having essentially written it off? If he does, this will rival the winner's headlines going into New Hampshire.

Second speculation story line that sounds a lot like New Hampshire: Will the independents show up and break Democratic in heavy numbers. If they do, it will be an exciting night.

Weather forecast: cold, sunny, windy, in the 20s with wind chills in the single digits tonight. Downright balmy.

(earlier)
What the brigades of talking head pundits may be talking about while waiting today, courtesy of Talking Points Memo and the final Zogby/Rueters/C-CPAN tracking poll here in caucus kingdom.

Needless to say, these would be interesting outcomes if they prove accurate. Here are the raw numbers including up and down movement from Jan. 1:
:

Democrats:
Obama 31% (+3)
Edwards 27% (+1)
Clinton 24% (-4)
Richardson 7% (+0)
Biden 5% (+1)

Republicans:
Huckabee 31% (+3)
Romney 25% (+1)
Thompson 11% (-1)
McCain 10% (-2)
Paul 10% (+1)
Giuliani 6% (-1)

In my daily link, John Dickerson of Slate speculates that Hillary Clinton might have found her herself, her stride on the campaign trail.

The wrong person to ask this question was Chris Coleman, a Des Moines city councilor who takes this business seriously and with enthusiasm. He kept his teenage children Maggie and Nick up late on a school night in a bi-partisan campaign tour blitz -- I think I got this right but he told me they visited Fred Thompson's office (Fred wasn't there), to the same rally I was at with Mitt Romney, to Joe Biden's office (Joe wasn't there), to the John Edwards rally and then to see Obama. The one stop he couldn't make ws the Bill and Hillary Clinton show, also in Des Moines. You know your are feeling inadequate as a professional scribe when Joe Citizen out hustles you on the campaign trail.

Coleman plans to caucus for Joe Biden but when I asked what does he hears from his friends and neighbors, he pointed towards Obama. "He's the buzz."

The man with the buzz was working with only one engine of a four-engine voice. It was mostly gone after five stops across the state today and months of campaign abuse. Even if he couldn't raise his hoarse voice very high, the crowd was juiced and the media swarm tagging along was a who's who of the Washington elite (a Tim Russert of the Meet the Press there, a Maureen Dowd of the New York Times and Andrea Mitchell of NBC over there, and a Jonathan Alter of Newsweek and Judy Woodruff of PBS as well) which only adds to the buzz.

It was a different kind of buzz at the Mitt Romney rally which was of a smaller size but pretty juiced up in its own right. Romney strives for the Ronald Reagan style of scripted political storytelling, heavy on the optimism (There's no distress in America that can't be solved without a little effort -- and a good scapegoat to take the blame) and even heavier on inspiring tales of flag, family, faith and values (some 57 varities of values -- Yankee, heartland, midwestern, southern values to name a few Romney mentioned). It's a lullaby routine that can be disarming and Romney looks like a winner -- which for the $20 plus million he's invested here, he'd better get a high return especially when compared to the bargain basement operation and self-inflicted wounds of late of his closest rival Mike Huckabee.

For my money, your best bet for a complete immersion into cognitive dissonance partake in a back to back Republican and Democratic candidate rallies. They might as well be talking about conditions on different planets in far apart solar systems.

I was there courtesy of Joyce Chamberlain, who has been the Democratic precinct chair in Pleasantville (population: maybe 2,000) since 1976 and the coffee group has been a regular part of the routine of some 25 ladies -- the men folk get their coffee elsewhere -- who talk of what people nomrally talk about on a daily basis. Needless to say, the talk of late has been the caucus and little else. Of the 11 I talked to today, 10 were planning to attend the local Democratic precinct caucus which could draw as many as 150 -- which Chamberlain told me would make it quite crowded at the local Memorial Building It's the largest of 17 caucuses in Marion County.(Republicans have their caucus across the county in Pella.) The coffee ladies were well known in the area and campaign staffers have stopped by regularly to make the cases for their candidates. While I was pleasantly grilled about what I thought and who I'd seen on the campaign trail in first-in-the-galaxy primary land, I managed to get an early caucus beakdown. In an very informal and impromptu straw poll, the support broke down like this: Edwards 3, Richardson 3, Obama 3, Clinton 1 and one undecided (between Hillary and Obama).

My favorite quote from the coffee ladies about the fluid nature of the caucus process came from Rose Warren: "I stand my ground 'til the last minute."

Read more about my visit to Pleasantville in tomorrow's Out on a Limb column at seacoastonline.com.

Beginning at 6 p.m. local time, it will be media traffic jam time as the Clinton, Obama and Edwards campaigns have purchased up to two minutes of local news time to make the final plea. It's an expensive plea for support but one that will gnerate more buzz for the buck than the typical homogenized ad. At the same time I've been invited to a Caucus Media Reception at the Des Moines Art Center -- it's this sort of appreciation for hard-working scribes (food and drink included) that makes Iowa unique.

In the shameless promotion department, New York Times blogger Michael Falcone picked up my "fish out of water" musings of a New Hampshire primary devotee covering the fuss in Iowa. Read his take here.

Latest caucus night weather forecast: Balmy in the 20s.

I'm venturing out into the artic freeze and travel to Pleasantville (southeast of Des Moines) for coffee and voter chatter. I missed yesterday the second round of GOPer Mike Huckabee's eccentric non-negative political theatre, this time with actor (sort of) Chuck Norris delivering a negative slap to the face of Mitt Romney. Oddly, no questions were allowed though it was staged for reporters. The buzz this morning is that Huckabee is daring to depart the caucus kingdom for an appearance tonight with Jay Leno.

Speaking of theatre, there's actually a play running right now called "Caucus: The Musical." Why don't we do such things in New Hampshire?

By my reckoning, Hillary "every stage of her life has prepared her for the presidency" Clinton has cornered the market on back to back ads -- one voter centric and another Hillary centric. The combination is not unlike that of the Terminator -- she will be back again and again.

In between the ads (Chris Dodd earnestly told me again and again that he's an experienced leader; Ron Paul tells me he's delivered 4,000 babies; Joe Biden is ready to take on a nasty world), a Des Moines television station gave helpful hints to those of us departing on Friday morning (get to the airport really early and pack smart). They are thoughtful and nice here.

In my daily link, Jeff Greenfield in Slate gives a reasoned diss of the Iowa caucus system. It's all true and it doesn't matter a wit.

One of my favorite nuggets was from an Australian commentator who wrote this explanation for the folks down under and warned it was important to take notice of what will happen in Iowa (has to do with choosing the leader of the free world with looks positively strange to 99.5 percent of the rest of the world.)

“The Iowa caucuses are a process so bizarre and byzantine it is either, depending on your outlook, the essence of grass-roots democracy, a quaint anachronism, or perhaps just plain crazy. For a start, only a small fraction of Iowans will vote. In the Democrats’ case, it is not a secret ballot - people gather in groups in corners of a room to indicate their support for a candidate, and then try to convince those in the other corners to join them. They pick delegates to county conventions, which then lead to district and eventually state conventions. And long after the media has lost interest, these delegates can change their allegiances. If the United Nations sent observers to monitor the poll they would shake their heads," said Mark Coultan of the Sydney Morning Herald.

I get to add to the circus. One Iowan told me "the state is overrun with candidates, their handlers, campaigns and roadside gawkers." I'll start posting from Iowa tomorrow.

Before I head out for the holiday weekend and a trip to Iowa to see what all the fuss is about, here's my Friday shameless promotion plug for Sunday's Out in a LImb column. It's the First Annual Primies, a nod to some of my favorite moments and observations on the campaign trail during 2007.

It took long enough but the Clinton campaign finally did figure out an effective ad theme with the latest effort titled "Stakes." It's smart, succinct and thankfully not weighed down with thematic baggage. It's also the most effective ad of the campaign (and will hopefully allow people to forget last week's holiday ad theme debacle.See it here.

I doubt Dem hopeful Joe Biden has gone through too many themes during his valiant primary season quest to break through the celebrity and media horse race chatter dominated by the Clinton/Edwards/Obama grudge match. He's spent too much of the campaign like an eccentric uncle people enjoy but wouldn't necessarily trust with their vote. Well, Joe told Walter Shapriro of Salon there might be a Iowa caucus surprise out there for his campaign -- which would help his prospects immensely in New Hampshire. Read about Joe Biden's self-assessment here in my daily link.