Getting five votes may prove more difficult if Adm. Harold W. Gehman recuses himself from the shipyard decision. Former shipyard commander Capt. Bill McDonough said Tuesday that Gehman is considering stepping down from voting on Portsmouth and the New London (Conn.) Naval Submarine Base because of a conflict of interest.

McDonough said he did not know how other commissioners will vote, but said he doubted it will be a unanimous decision.

"I would say it’s 50-50; I just don’t know," McDonough said.

McDonough said he expected commissioners to vote on the yard by 5 p.m. today.

Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., said Tuesday he was "cautiously optimistic" about the vote.

"I think we’ve proven the Navy deviated from the BRAC criteria in putting Portsmouth on the closure list," he said.

Gregg said the two delegations have split up the BRAC commissioners and kept in contact with each one over the past several weeks. The senior New Hampshire senator said he believes all the commissioners have gotten the message.

"If you look at the questions the commissioners have been asking, particularly over the last several weeks, you will see that many of them are based on information we have supplied," Gregg said.

New Hampshire 1st District Congressman Jeb Bradley said he has no doubt the information the delegations, governors and shipyard supporters have forwarded to the commissioners has hit the mark.

"I’ve talked to a number of BRAC commissioners," Bradley said. "I asked if they needed any more information, and they all said they had everything they needed."

The congressman said he is reasonably certain the commissioners have concerns about whether there will be enough repair capacity for a future submarine fleet with Portsmouth closed, as well as whether the savings projected by the Pentagon are accurate.

"At least one member of the commission, the chairman, is taking a long, hard look at the capacity issue," Bradley said, referring to an article that appeared in Congressional Quarterly on Monday.

In that article, BRAC Commission Chairman Anthony Principi offered what CQ reporter John M. Donnelly called "a spirited defense" of the Portsmouth yard. That gave credibility to what Donnelly said were rumors circulating among consultants and others familiar with the process that Portsmouth might be spared.

"Today it is estimated we probably have about 25 percent excess capacity in our public shipyards," Principi told the Capitol Hill newspaper. "But if you close down Portsmouth, you reduce that excess capacity to somewhere between 5 and 8 percent.

"We have to look out at a horizon over 20 years to 2025," the BRAC chairman said. "When we look at emerging regional threats, uncertainty as to the number of submarines that we’ll have in the future, it gives us some pause for concern."

Principi called Portsmouth the "preeminent shipyard in this nation" and "the gold standard by which we should measure productivity and management-labor relationships," but he also again pointed to the excess capacity issue.

BRAC VOTE REACTION

• If the vote is taken before 7 p.m. today: Within an hour of the decision, The Save Our Shipyard Task Force, local politicians and shipyard workers will gather outside the shipyard’s Gate 1 for a news conference.

• If the vote is taken after 7 p.m. today: The press conference will be held outside Gate 1 at 9 a.m. Thursday. The New Hampshire congressional delegation will also hold a news conference outside Gate 1 at 10 a.m.

• If the vote is taken on Thursday: The news conference will be held within an hour of the decision outside Gate 1.

• The Kittery Town Council news conference outside of Traip Academy has been canceled. Councilors will join the group outside Gate 1.
  

By Emily Aronson and Shir Haberman
news@seacoastonline.com

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