Sports Insider by Frank Coppola: Scuffling Red Sox in need of a miracle against Rays

October 15, 2008

Scuffling Red Sox in need of a miracle against Rays

Between now and the start of Thursday's Game 5 in the American League championship series, you're bound to hear a lot about the Red Sox' recent postseason history.

2004: Rallied from 3-0 deficit to beat Yankees in historic ALCS on way to World Series win.
2007: Rallied from 3-1 deficit to beat Indians in ALCS on way to second title in four years.

Now that Boston trails the Rays 3-1 in this year's ALCS, some Red Sox fans might be holding out hope that history repeats again. Well, we probably shouldn't count on it.

This Red Sox team reminds me of the 2006 Patriots team that somehow advanced to the AFC title game despite a wide receiving corps led by Reche Caldwell. The Red Sox have pulled off a similar trick thus far, but the ride could be ending very soon.

Not to burst any bubbles, but here are some reasons why:

* Injuries. Mike Lowell is officially done for the season with a hip injury, David Ortiz is simply not himself at the plate right now due to that troublesome wrist and/or knee, and Josh Beckett seems to be a complete mess due to elbow/shoulder/oblique woes. Having Curt Schilling around wouldn't hurt, either.

* Too many holes in the lineup. Remember when the Red Sox had batting champion Bill Mueller batting ninth a few years ago? Those days are gone. Outside of Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay, who do you really feel good about at the plate right now? Ortiz is banged up. Jason Varitek can't hit anymore. Jed Lowrie has been slumping for months. Mark Kotsay and J.D. Drew don't scare anybody. Neither do Jacoby Ellsbury or Coco Crisp. Other than that, things look great.

* The reason Boston got past the Angels in the first round was starting pitching, namely Jon Lester. Well, Lester got lit up against the Rays, as did Beckett. Dice-K survived another bout of wildness in Game 1 to throw a strong game, but if he's Boston's best hope ... well, there's not much hope.

* If last year's Josh Beckett were still around, I'd actually feel pretty good about the Red Sox' chances. You give Dice-K the benefit of the doubt Thursday, and you have Lester for Game 7. But Beckett has been bombed twice in the playoffs in two starts, and was basically throwing batting practice last Saturday. As Rick Pitino would say, the 2007 Beckett isn't walking through that door. Maybe next year he'll come to spring training in shape, unlike this year.

* This Rays team is good. Really good. And young. And hungry. The guys who have been there for a few years, like Carl Crawford (5-for-5 in Game 4), are savoring this moment for all it's worth after being baseball's doormats for so long.

* After three Super Bowl wins, two World Series championships and one NBA title this decade, the sports gods might finally be frowning on Boston (see Brady, Tom). If Kevin Garnett goes down soon, we'll have our answer.

Posted by Frank Coppola at October 15, 2008 01:29 PM

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